Uganda Weather Forecasts

Overall, the SOND 2026 climate outlook indicates that most parts of the country are expected to receive near-normal to above-normal (near-average to above-average) rainfall, and warmer than average temperatures. The outlook of this season is expected to be associated with El Nino episode. The spatial distribution of the seasonal rainfall outlook and climatology are shown in Figures 1(a) and 1(b), respectively, and the expected temperature distribution is provided in Figure 2.

The major climate drivers expected to influence the September to December 2026 rainfall performance over Uganda include:

1. The established El Niño episode is expected to intensify during the SOND 2026 season. This suggests an increased likelihood of enhanced rainfall, particularly over the Central, Northern and Eastern regions of Uganda;
2. The positioning and orientation of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over Uganda during this season, coupled with the moisture advection of the Congo Air Mass, are expected to play a significant role in modulating rainfall distribution;
3. The intra-seasonal variation of the tropical wind system known as Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) is currently in a neutral phase, and is projected to strengthen into a dry phase over the next one to two weeks. This development is therefore likely to suppress rainfall in September 2026;
4. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in the neutral phase and is projected to reach positive peak level around October 2026. This condition, together with El Niño is likely to enhance rainfall over most parts of Uganda;
5. The regional and local features, such as large water bodies and highland areas are likely to enhance localized convection and influence spatial rainfall distribution during the season.

The anticipated above-normal rainfall across most parts of the country is likely to have significant socio-economic implications. While the western and northeastern regions are expected to receive near-normal to above-normal rainfall, the broader country is expected to experience above-normal rainfall with an increased likelihood of extreme weather events during the season. The expected potential impacts on different sectors and their corresponding advisories are presented below.

The seasonal forecast for September to December, 2026 season reveals that near-normal to above-normal rainfall is expected in most parts of Uganda. However, the onset of rains will vary by region, with most areas expected to experience late onset. The rainfall peak is expected by the end of October to November, and the season is projected to extend up to early January 2027 in most parts of the country.

The predicted rainfall requires timely action to mitigate risks and take advantage of favorable conditions. This forecast should guide planning in all climate-sensitive sectors to enhance economic resilience and community well-being.

The Ministry of Water and Environment will continue to monitor weather patterns and regularly issue updates to support planning and decision-making.

During the last second dekad (ten days) of October, most parts of the country received moderate rainfall except for the Karamoja sub-region and neighbouring districts, which remained predominantly dry, with isolated light showers. The western sector received substantial amounts of rainfall, with flooding incidences reported in some areas.

• The expected enhanced and moderate rainfall over most parts of the country have high possible potential risks of flooding, landslides, transport disruption and infrastructure damage.
• The wet conditions are likely to result into contamination of unprotected water sources due to surface runoff, leading to outbreaks of waterborne diseases like cholera, dysentery and typhoid, alongside increased malaria transmission from stagnant water breeding sites.
• Strong and gusty winds resulting in blowing off of roof structures and plants.
• Likelihood of lightning incidents over most parts of the country.
• The areas to be dry are likely to have high risks of water stress and pasture depletion.

• Farmers should undertake planting and use appropriate crop varieties suited to the expected rainfall conditions.
• Livestock keepers should avoid animals to remain in flooded areas.
• Dig drainage channels to divert excess water from gardens to avoid waterlogging.
• Communities living on vulnerable steep slopes should stay highly alert and temporarily relocate to safer lowlands or host safer families if cracks appear in the soil.
• Urban Authorities are advised to swiftly clear silt and garbage from drainage channels, open storm drains, and cover open manholes to prevent drowning.
• Communities are encouraged to boil or treat all drinking water.
• Intensify household hygiene, ensure pit latrines are well-covered, and clear bushes and stagnant water around homes to reduce mosquito breeding grounds.
• Communities are advised not to cross flooded areas.
• The public and school children are advised not to seek shelter under isolated trees, tents, open-sided pavilions, football fields or roof structures that lack lightning arresters during thunderstorms.
• Areas expected to have dry conditions should monitor rainfall, soil moisture, crop conditions, pasture availability and water sources.
• Monitor and report any emergence of crop pests, animal parasites, and plant diseases to authorities.